XpressBet.com Column, It’s Post Time  

“They’re into the stretch and Algorithms moves up alongside Hansen. Algorithms moves by Hansen. Algorithms is pulling away from Hansen! And My Adonis has rallied up late on the outside. It is Algorithms and Javier Castellano winning the Holy Bull! Hansen holds on for second. My Adonis was third. Fort Loudon finished fourth.” 

That was Gulfstream Park track announcer Larry Collmus’ stretch call of last Sunday’s Grade II Holy Bull Stakes. Algorithms, owned by Starlight Racing, splashed his way to a five-length victory on the sloppy track. The Kentucky-bred Bernardini colt completed his one-mile journey in 1:36.17 to hand Hansen his first defeat. 

Hansen was making his 2012 debut after going three for three in 2011 en route to being voted an Eclipse Award as America’s champion 2-year-old male. The Holy Bull was Hansen’s first start since he had edged Union Rags to win the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs on Nov. 5. 

Algorithms now is undefeated in three starts. He won when unveiled at Belmont Park last June 3, then got the job done in an allowance/optional claiming sprint at Gulfstream on Dec. 16 prior to his Holy Bull triumph for trainer Todd Pletcher. 

“This race was going to tell us where we were with him, running against the 2-year-old champion,” Pletcher said of Algorithms after the Holy Bull. “Now he’s done everything we’ve asked him to.” 

As for the 2-year-old champ, Hansen stumbled at the start, recovered quickly to carve out the early fractions (:23.64, :45.67, 1:10.21) while rolling along easily, then was no match for Algorithms in the lane. 

Algorithms has an interesting Beyer Speed Figure pattern: 78, 88, 98. Does this mean he is going to run a 108 in his next race? (I doubt it.) Speaking of Algorithms’ next race, Pletcher indicated it probably will be at Gulfstream in the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes on Feb. 26 and/or Grade I Florida Derby on March 31. 

Last year’s Holy Bull winner, Dialed In, would go on to capture the Florida Derby before finishing eighth in the Kentucky Derby. In 2006, Barbaro parlayed a Holy Bull win into victories in both the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby. In 1994, Go for Gin won both the Holy Bull and Kentucky Derby. 

Here are the Beyer Speed Figures for the last 22 winners of the Holy Bull: 

2012 Algorithms (98)

2011 Dialed In (93)

2010 Winslow Humor (91)

2009 Saratoga Sinner (98)

2008 Hey Byrn (88)

2007 Nobiz Like Shobiz (99)

2006 Barbaro (95)

2005 Closing Argument (98)

2004 Second of June (111)

2003 Offlee Wild (99)

2002 Booklet (101)

2001 Radical Riley (90)

2000 Hal’s Hope (100)

1999 Gritz’n Hard Toast (100)

1998 Cape Town (101)

1997 Arthur L (107)

1996 Cobra King (107)

1995 Suave Prospect (100)

1994 Go for Gin (100)

1993 Pride of Burkkaan (88)

1992 Waki Warrior (92)

1991 Shoot to Kill (99) 

Following Algorithms’ Holy Bull victory, he has rocketed to No. 2 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 list this week: 

1. OUT OF BOUNDS. Sire: Discreet Cat. Trainer: Eoin Harty. Wynn/Encore Future Book Odds: 25-1 (no change from last week). 

As noted earlier, Algorithms has an improving Beyer Speed Figure pattern of 78, 88, 98. Out of Bounds is similar in this regard: 66, 78, 99. 

Out of Bounds, who has won two of three career starts, took Santa Anita’s Grade III Sham Stakes at one mile on Jan. 7. He is scheduled to make his next start in Santa Anita’s Grade II San Felipe Stakes at 1 1/16 miles on March 10. Out of Bounds worked five furlongs Monday in 1:00 3/5 at Hollywood Park. 

2. ALGORITHMS. Sire: Bernardini. Trainer: Todd Pletcher. Wynn/Encore Future Book Odds: 8-1 (10-1 last week). 

Algorithms moves all the way up to No. 2 this week after being No. 9 last week. 

3. UNION RAGS. Sire: Dixie Union. Trainer: Michael Matz. Wynn/Encore Future Book Odds: 10-1 (no change from last week). 

Union Rags is gearing up in Florida for his first 2012 race. He is to return to competition in the Fountain of Youth. Union Rags worked five furlongs Tuesday in 1:02 3/5 at Palm Meadows. Daily Racing Form’s Mike Welsch reported Union Rags as posting fractions of :25 2/5 and :37 4/5, with the colt galloping out six furlongs in 1:15 2/5. 

4. LIAISON. Sire: Indian Charlie. Trainer: Bob Baffert. Wynn/Encore Future Book Odds: 12-1 (no change from last week). 

It appears all systems are go for Liaison to make his 2012 debut this Saturday in Santa Anita Grade II Robert B. Lewis Sakes at 1 1/16 miles. He is one of eight 3-year-olds entered in the Lewis. 

Liaison takes a three-race winning streak into Saturday’s race, which will be his first start since he won Hollywood Park’s Grade I CashCall Futurity on Dec. 17. Liaison two most recent workouts at Santa Anita: six furlongs in 1:11 4/5 on Jan. 26 and four furlongs in :48 flat on Tuesday. 

From the rail out, the Lewis field consists of Isn’t He Clever, Liaison, Groovy Solo, I’ll Have Another, Sky Kingdom, Rousing Sermon, Empire Way and Chips All In. 

5. EL PADRINO. Sire: Pulpit. Trainer: Todd Pletcher. Wynn/Encore Future Book Odds: 28-1 (40-1 last week). 

El Padrino debuts on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 list this week. He registered a two-length win in a 1 1/16-mile allowance/optional claiming affair on a “good” track at Gulfstream last Saturday while making his first 2012 start. El Padrino earned a 100 Beyer Speed Figure to surpass Algorithms in that department on the same Gulfstream card. 

In El Padrino’s final 2011 appearance under silks, he finished third in the Grade II Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct on Nov. 26. 

Pletcher has indicated El Padrino will run next in either the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream or Grade II Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds on Feb. 25. 

6. CREATIVE CAUSE. Sire: Giant’s Causeway. Trainer: Mike Harrington. Wynn/Encore Future Book Odds: 20-1 (no change from last week). 

Creative Cause, winner of the Grade I Norfolk Stakes at Santa Anita last Oct. 10, finished third behind Hansen and Union Rags in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He is slated to make his first start as a 3-year-old in Santa Anita’s Grade II San Vicente Stakes at seven furlongs on Feb. 19. Creative Cause drilled six furlongs in 1:11 3/5 at Hollywood Park last Saturday. 

7. DISCREET DANCER. Sire: Discreet Cat. Trainer: Todd Pletcher. Wynn/Encore Future Book Odds: 18-1 (no change from last week). 

Discreet Dancer, two for two with victories by 9 3/4 and 5 1/2 lengths, is one of three Pletcher trainees on this Top 10 list. He is a candidate for the Fountain of Youth. 

8. ROUSING SERMON. Sire: Lucky Pulpit. Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer. Wynn/Encore Future Book Odds: 20-1 (no change from last week). 

Rousing Sermon’s connections are hoping the third time is the charm in terms of his encounters with Liaison. 

Liaison won Hollywood Park’s Real Quiet Stakes by a half-length at 1 1/16 miles on Nov. 12. He then took the CashCall Futurity there by a neck on Dec. 17. Rousing Sermon finished second both times. Rousing Sermon was particularly impressive in defeat in the CashCall Futurity, as he roared home after being 10th at the eighth pole. 

Rousing Sermon and Liaison clash for the third time as part of the Lewis field at the Great Race Place this Saturday. 

9. HANSEN. Sire: Tapit. Trainer: Michael Maker. Wynn/Encore Future Book Odds: 15-1 (11-1 last week). 

Hansen emerged from his Holy Bull defeat none the worse for wear, according to Maker. The trainer indicated the plan is for the Hansen to make his next start in the Fountain of Youth. 

10. FED BIZ. Sire: Giant’s Causeway. Trainer: Bob Baffert. Wynn/Encore Future Book Odds: 40-1 (60-1 last week). 

As I mentioned last week, I think Fed Biz has considerable potential. He finished fourth when unveiled in a sprint at Hollywood Park on Nov. 27, then won a one-mile maiden race by 1 3/4 lengths at Santa Anita on Dec. 30. Fed Biz worked six furlongs in 1:12 4/5 at Santa Anita last Saturday.

XpressBet.com Column, It’s Post Time

Three-year-olds already have begun their trek on the 2012 Kentucky Derby trail. Mr. Bowling captured the Grade III Lecomte at the Fair Grounds last Saturday. The Grade III Holy Bull, scheduled to be headed by undefeated Eclipse Award winner Hansen, will be decided at Gulfstream Park this Sunday. 

This week, I have to submit my first Kentucky Derby Top 10 of the year to the Louisville Courier-Journal. I predict most people participating in that newspaper’s poll will have Union Rags at the top of their list. I will be shocked if Union Rags is not the consensus No. 1. 

I was going to put Union Rags at the top of my list, but then I took a closer look at that colt vis-à-vis Out of Bounds. 

Union Rags has lost once. Out of Bounds has lost once. So that’s a tie. 

Union Rags is zero for one going around two turns. Out of Bounds is one for one going around two turns. Advantage: Out of Bounds. 

Union Rags’ top Beyer Speed Figure is 94. Out of Bounds’ top Beyer is 99. Advantage: Out of Bounds. 

Union Rags has either gained ground or increased his lead in the final furlong in each of his races. Ditto Out of Bounds. So that’s another tie. 

Look, I think a lot of Union Rags. As I said, I originally planned to rank him No. 1. But after considering Out of Bounds’ advantages over Union Rags, as articulated above, I made the decision to put Out of Bounds at the top of my list: 

1. OUT OF BOUNDS. Sire: Discreet Cat. Trainer: Eoin Harty. Wynn/Encore Future Books: (25-1).\ 

Out of Bounds finished fourth when unveiled in a six-furlong race at Santa Anita on Oct. 22, then won a seven-furlong race on Hollywood Park’s synthetic surface Dec. 10. 

Following his Dec. 10 maiden victory, Out of Bounds started in Santa Anita’s Grade III Sham at one mile. Prior to the Sham, these comments of mine concerning Out of Bounds appeared in Ed Golden’s Santa Anita stable notes: 

“Watch out for Out of Bounds. He’s a beautiful-looking colt with an excellent pedigree. He is a son of Discreet Cat and Unbridled Elaine. Unbridled Elaine, a Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner, is the dam of Etched, a multiple Group 2 winner. Not only did Out of Bounds just basically toy with his rivals when he won against maidens going seven furlongs at Hollywood Park, it looks like he will relish the longer distance of the Sham.” 

Not only did Unbridled Elaine win the 2001 Breeders’ Cup Distaff as a 3-year-old despite a rough trip, earlier that year she acquitted herself well against males in the Grade III Pennsylvania Derby. Unbridled Elaine ran second to Eclipse Award winner Macho Uno in the Pennsylvania Derby. 

Etched had the stamina to win two Grade II races at 1 1/8 miles. From what I’ve seen, not only does it appear Out of Bounds will be effective going as far as 1 1/8 miles, I think he has the size and way of going to quite possibly win going 1 1/4 miles. 

Out of Bounds was dismissed at 10-1 in the Sham. After racing two lengths off the early pace, he responded willingly in the final furlong to win by a half-length. Out of Bounds handed 1-2 favorite Secret Circle his first defeat in four career starts. Secret Circle was coming off a win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint. 

In the Jan. 20 edition of Thoroughbred Times Today, Harty said retired Hall of Fame jockey Julie Krone worked Out of Bounds in company with a 3-year-old last summer at Del Mar. Krone was working horses at the time for Harty in order to get ready to ride in the Leger Legends at Doncaster in England on Sept. 7, a race Krone won. 

According to Harty, during Out of Bounds’ Del Mar workout with the 3-year-old, it was all Krone could do “just to hold Out of Bounds back and try to slow him down.” 

“That was pretty much the tip-off right there” that Out of Bounds was a quality colt, Harty said to the Thoroughbred Times Today. The trainer also noted that Out of Bounds is “a pretty imposing individual” and “certainly looks the part.” 

In terms of Out of Bounds’ demeanor, Harty said the chestnut colt is “very, very sensible, and he’s very focused on what he does.” 

Out of Bounds worked four furlongs Monday in :48 2/5 on Hollywood’s Cushion Track. He is scheduled to make his next start in Santa Anita’s Grade II San Felipe at 1 1/16 miles on March 10. 

2. UNION RAGS. Sire: Dixie Union. Trainer: Michael Matz. Wynn/Encore Future Book Odds: 10-1. 

Union Rags was extremely impressive when he won the Grade I Champagne at Belmont Park on Oct. 8. Overcoming traffic trouble, he drew away with authority to win by 5 1/2 lengths. Alpha finished second. Union Rags’ Champagne victory looks even better now after Alpha won Aqueduct’s Count Fleet by 2 1/2 lengths on Jan. 7. 

Union Rags’ lone defeat in four career starts came in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs. He raced wide and lost by only a head. Don’t forget, a colt by the name of Point Given lost the 2000 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by a nose to Macho Uno prior to a 2001 Horse of the Year campaign in which he won such important events as the Santa Anita Derby, Preakness Stakes, Belmont Stakes, Haskell Invitational and Travers Stakes. Perhaps Union Rags’ narrow Breeders’ Cup Juvenile defeat will likewise portend a highly successful sophomore campaign. 

One thing that bothers me about Union Rags is he was unable to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile despite having every chance to get by eventual winner Hansen the entire length of the stretch. The difference in the case of Point Given’s narrow loss in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill is he was a fast-closing second. 

Union Rags worked five furlongs Tuesday in 1:00.82 at Palm Meadows for Matz, who won the 2006 Kentucky Derby with Barbaro. Union Rags is slated to make his 2012 debut in Gulfstream Park’s Grade II Fountain of Youth on Feb. 26. 

3. LIAISON. Sire: Indian Charlie. Trainer: Bob Baffert. Wynn/Encore Future Book Odds: 12-1. 

After finishing third when unveiled at Del Mar, Liaison has reeled off three straight wins. He took a pair of 1 1/16-mile stakes races during the Hollywood fall meet, the Real Quiet on Nov. 12 and Grade I CashCall Futurity on Dec. 17. 

Baffert also trained Indian Charlie, who won the first four starts of his career. In 1998, after Indian Charlie registered a 2 1/2-length victory in the Grade I Santa Anita Derby, he ran ran third as the 5-2 favorite in the Kentucky Derby in what would be the final start of his career. Indian Charlie was retired the following August due to a sesamoid injury. 

Even though Indian Charlie was defeated in the Kentucky Derby, Baffert still won it with Real Quiet. Real Quiet also won the Preakness before his bid at Triple Crown glory was spoiled in the Belmont. Victory Gallop beat Real Quiet by a nose in the Belmont. 

Liaison is out of a Victory Gallop mare. 

Real Quiet, of course, is not Baffert’s lone Kentucky Derby winner. He also won it with Silver Charm in 1997 and War Emblem in 2002. 

I certainly would not be surprised to see Baffert win another Kentucky Derby with Liaison. Keep in mind, though, Liaison’s top Beyer Speed Figure is the 91 he earned in the CashCall Futurity, compared to Out of Bounds’ 99 in the Sham. 

4. CREATIVE CAUSE. Sire: Giant’s Causeway. Trainer: Mike Harrington. Wynn/Encore Future Book Odds: 20-1. 

I believe Creative Cause is a bona fide Kentucky Derby contender based on his race record and breeding. 

Creative Cause won the Grade I Norfolk at Santa Anita before finishing third, just one length behind Hansen and Union Rags, in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. 

In terms of Creative Cause’s breeding, his sire is a source of class and stamina. Creative Cause’s dam, Dream of Summer, was good enough to win the Grade I Apple Blossom Handicap at Oaklawn Park in 2005. 

There is one thing that bothers me a bit — I repeat, a bit — about Creative Cause. His biggest victory came in the Norfolk when he prevailed by 3 1/4 lengths. Drill was the runner-up. Drill’s subsequently races have not exactly made Creative Cause look better. Since the Norfolk, Drill has finished 10^th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, seventh in the Grade III Delta Jackpot at Delta Downs, ninth in the Grade I CashCall Futurity and fifth in last Sunday’s San Pedro Stakes at Santa Anita. 

Drill even beat Creative Cause in the Grade I Del Mar Futurity last year. But in Creative Cause’s defense, he did drill Drill in the Norfolk before going on to give a good account of himself in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. 

5. HANSEN. Sire: Tapit. Trainer: Michael Maker. Wynn/Encore Future Book Odds: 11-1. 

I picked Hansen to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, which he did at 7-1. I love the heart he displayed all the way down the stretch that day to defeat favored Union Rags. Is Hansen very talented? Yes. Is he talented enough to carry his speed 1 1/4 miles on the first Saturday in May? Maybe. Who really knows what the limit is for Hansen until he finally gets beat? 

In terms of Beyer Speed Figures, Hansen’s top is the 94 he recorded in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. So, again, Out of Bounds already has earned a higher Beyer than Hansen. 

Hansen worked five furlongs Sunday in :59 4/5 at Gulfstream in preparation for his 2012 debut this Sunday. 

If Hansen does happen to win the Kentucky Derby, there is a possibility the colt’s breeder and co-owner, Dr. Kendall Hansen, still will be giving his victory speech as the telecast ends and the network switches to other programming, based on what occurred at the Eclipse Awards dinner. 

6. DISCREET DANCER. Sire: Discreet Cat. Trainer: Todd Pletcher. Wynn/Encore Future Book Odds: 18-1. 

Discreet Dancer, who has the same sire as Out of Bounds, brings some Beyer Speed Figure power to the party. He earned a 98 in his 9 3/4-length debut win in a 5 1/2-furlong sprint against Florida-breds at Gulfstream on Dec. 3. He followed that by earning a 96 in a 5 1/2-length triumph in a one-mile allowance/optional claiming race there on Jan. 7. 

Put It There finished second to Discreet Dancer in his Dec. 3 debut. When Put It There subsequently competed at Santa Anita, he did not flatter Discreet Dancer. Put It There finished third, 5 1/2 lengths behind the winner, in a six-furlong maiden $75,000 claiming race at the Great Race Place on Jan. 5. 

One thing in Discreet Dancer’s favor is his conditioner has won the big race on the first Saturday in May. Pletcher won the 2010 Kentucky Derby with Super Saver. 

7. ROUSING SERMON. Sire: Lucky Pulpit. Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer. Wynn/Encore Future Book Odds: 20-1. 

Rousing Sermon rallied strongly to finish second in the Grade I CashCall Futurity. Tenth at the eighth pole, 3 1/2 lengths off the lead, he closed with gusto to lose by only a neck to Liaison. Rousing Sermon, a Lucky Pulpit colt, also had finished second to Liaison in the Real Quiet. 

While those two runner-up performances by Rousing Sermon came on synthetic footing, he has won on the dirt. He took the California Cup Juvenile by 2 1/4 widening lengths on the dirt Oct. 29 at Santa Anita. 

8. FED BIZ. Sire: Giant’s Causeway. Trainer: Bob Baffert. Wynn/Encore Future Book Odds: 60-1. 

Fed Biz, who has the same sire as Creative Cause, finished fourth when debuting in a six-furlong race on synthetic footing Nov. 27 at Hollywood. When stretched out to one mile and switched to dirt, Fed Biz won nicely by 1 3/4 lengths at Santa Anita on Dec. 30. The 88 Beyer for his Dec. 30 win won’t knock your socks off. But I believe Fed Biz has considerable potential. 

9. ALGORITHMS. Sire: Bernardini. Trainer: Todd Pletcher. Wynn/Encore Future Book Odds: 25-1. 

Algorithms is two for two. He won by 5 1/4 lengths when unveiled in a five-furlong race at Belmont last June 5, then won a 6 1/2-furlong allowance/optional claiming contest by one length over another Bernardini colt, Consortium, at Gulfstream on Dec. 16. 

Gary West, one of the sharpest observers in the sport, noted in his Jan. 5 ESPN.com column that Algorithms “has considerable room to improve and develop.” 

Algorithms worked six furlongs Monday in 1:15.01 at Palm Meadows. He is expected to take on Hansen in the Holy Bull. 

10. SABERCAT. Sire: Bluegrass Cat. Trainer: Steve Asmusssen. Wynn/Encore Future Book Odds: 35-1. 

Because Sabercat won the Grade III, $1 million Delta Jackpot on Nov. 19, there are no worries about him in terms of having sufficient graded stakes earnings to get into the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby. 

I once thought it was only a matter of time before D. Wayne Lukas won a Kentucky Derby. Of course, not only did Lukas win the Derby with Winning Colors in 1988, he would go on to also win it with Thunder Gulch in 1995, Grindstone in 1996 and Charismatic in 1999. 

I once thought it was only a matter of time before Pletcher would win the Kentucky Derby. He did so two years ago with Super Saver. 

And now I think it’s only a matter of time before Asmussen wins the Kentucky Derby. Sabercat not only won the 1 1/16-mile Delta Jackpot by four lengths, he is three for three in dirt races at one mile or longer. 

Sabercat’s sire, Bluegrass Cat, and maternal grandsire, Forty Niner, both finished second in the Kentucky Derby. Bluegrass Cat was the runner-up to Barbaro in the 2006 Run for the Roses. Forty Niner ran second to Winning Colors in the 1988 Derby. 

The primary concern I have at this point regarding Sabercat is he does not have a published workout since he worked five furlongs in 1:01 4/5 at the Fair Grounds on Dec. 5. 

The lack of a published workout also is a concern for Gemologist, who did not quite make my initial Kentucky Derby Top 10 for 2012. Gemologist is three for three, with his most recent start a 1 3/4-length victory in the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill on Nov. 26. He has not had a published workout since that race. 

Inasmuch as February is approaching, I would think Sabercat and Gemologist better pop up with a published workout pretty soon. 

RACHEL ALEXANDRA DELIVERS FIRST FOAL 

In 2009 and 2010, many racing fans wanted to see Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra meet in a race. Unfortunately, it never happened. Well, Rachel Alexandra did manage to beat Zenyatta in terms of which one of them would become a mother first. 

At 2:40 p.m. last Sunday, 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra gave birth to a 125-pound colt by 2007 and 2008 Horse of the Year Curlin at Stonestreet Farm in Kentucky. 

According to a press release, the newborn colt took his first steps an hour and a half after his birth. “Emblazoned with a white star, the alert colt bears a striking resemblance to his mother,” the release stated. “Stonestreet Farm manager Gary Megibben reports all is well with both mare and foal and that, ‘Rachel is a natural mother, and took to the colt immediately.’ ” 

The release went on to say owner Barbara Banke was told of the news while preparing to cheer for the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC title game at Candlestick Park. (For the record, the New York Giants defeated the 49ers, 20-17, in overtime.) 

“I am thrilled with the good news of Rachel’s safe delivery and the health of the handsome colt that resembles her,” Banke said, who added that the newborn colt represents the dream of her late husband, Jess Jackson, “to raise and race the best.” 

Banke owns the newborn son of Curlin and Rachel Alexandra in partnership. 

“Co-owner Hal McCormick and I look forward to watching him develop and are excited to see him carry the Stonestreet silks as his mom and dad did before him.” 

Rachel Alexandra will be bred to Bernardini this year, according to the press release. Zenyatta, the 2010 Horse of the Year, currently is in foal to Bernardini.