At four-and-a-half miles and with thirty fences to jump, the only thing more grueling than the Grand National at Aintree is a Jennifer Aniston movie marathon. And with only a few more days until the actual race, it’s time to don my thinking cap and choose which of the possible forty grizzled old warriors is going to win.
Now, if you’ve ever seen the race you’ll know just how much of a crapshoot it is. For those of you who haven’t, I’ll try and sum it up.
Picture a field of forty fire-breathing horses (and forty fire-water drinking jockeys) charging flat out towards terrifyingly enormous brush fences — some of which you can’t see over, even when you’re on a horse. There’ll be plenty of fallers (almost always the ones you’ve backed), and there’ll be plenty of refusals (Watch the jockeys’ faces when they do. It’s hilarious – a mixture of “how dare you stop with me, you horrible little @#$%$^%!” and “I’m just so glad to be alive right now”). If you tune in expecting a National Velvet slush-fest, you’ll be sorely disappointed. But if bare-knuckle cage fighting to the death is more your kind of thing, then you’re in for a real treat.
I often think that some of the fences are grossly misnamed. Take, for instance, “Beecher’s Brook.” Innocuous sounding, don’t you think? If you jump it on the outside, you’ll be fine. If you jump it on the inside, you’ve got a ten-foot drop awaiting you. So I was thinking they should rename it “The Mangler” or “The Plummet of Doom.”
Then there’s “Valentine’s.” I can’t think of anything less romantic than finding yourself upside down in the ditch beneath a ton of horseflesh.
Ok, down to business. I’ll just run down a few of the market favorites, before giving you a couple of long shots.
The Midnight Club – great weight, great trainer (who knows how to win this race), great form leading up to the race and the greatest jump jockey of the current generation to boot. He deserves to be favorite, so expect to see him fall – probably at the first.
Backstage – there’s been a ton of money for him in recent days, but all he’s done lately is win a couple of Irish Point-to-Points. And while his trainer Gordon Elliot is one of the most talented young conditioners around, I really don’t think even he can get from the horse the improvement necessary to win a race of this stature.
Ballabriggs – I really fancy his chances. Trainer Donald McCain knows a thing or two about the National (his father was the trainer of the legendary Red Rum), but in the short time that he’s been training in his own right, McCain Jr. has already proven himself to be an even better handler than his father. The horse has had a great build up to the race (although when he was beaten last time, it was over an inadequate two-and-a-half miles), and if he stays on his feet, expect to see him there with a shout at the grim death.
Don’t Push It – Don’t back it.
What A Friend – the class horse in the field, and his sound jumping adds another plus to his resume. However, his recent (and very fine) Gold Cup run may have taken a toll that will only be exacerbated by the welter burden he is set to shoulder.
Now for a couple long shots:
Or Noir de Samoza – recently joined the David Pipe stable from France, where he was a superstar. The Pipe camp has been waxing lyrical about him for weeks, and he’s massively overpriced, considering his accomplishments thus far.
Quinz – still a novice, but a darn good one at that. The Hobbs stable has been firing all year, and he’s another with surprisingly generous odds.
There you have it: Ballabriggs, Or Noir de Samoza and Quinz. If one of these happens to win, then I’m a genius. If they don’t, then it’s because of terrible bad luck…and I’m still a genius!
